Why is a third runway being considered?

Updated fall 2024

In the Hurdal Platform, the Government decided to "establish an independent committee to review future capacity and needs at Oslo Airport in Gardermoen. This work was completed in September 2024. The committee's work will serve as the basis for the government's conclusion on the matter of a third runway. Avinor has contributed to this work with factual information and needs analysis. 

The full report can be downloaded here.

The committee's conclusion on the need for a third runway states:
"It is the committee's overall assessment that there may arise a need for a third runway in the future. Therefore, space for a third runway may be required. In line with this, the committee believes it is important to prevent construction around the current airport."

The committee estimates that it is unlikely the need will arise before 2040.
Projections from the Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) show that even if Oslo Airport maximizes its efficiency on the current two runways, this is expected to be insufficient starting in the period after 2040. There is uncertainty regarding developments in traffic patterns and aircraft size, including the introduction of new zero-emission aircraft and how this may impact future needs.

Aviation aims to be fossil-free by 2050. This means taking significant steps in that direction over the next decade. If aviation is well on its way to becoming sustainable by then, it is highly likely that a third runway will also be needed. Conversely, if aviation fails to transition to a sustainable future, the need for a third runway will diminish.

Thus, Avinor considers it crucial to reserve land for a potential third runway and ensure that the airport is not surrounded by construction, as this runway may be required in the future. 

 

Background: Why is a third runway being considered? 

A well-functioning hub for national and international aviation is essential for Norwegian society and business. On behalf of the Ministry of Transport, Avinor is tasked with ensuring an infrastructure that meets capacity and quality demands. 

For Norway, aviation is particularly important due to the long internal distances and its location at the edge of Europe. A transforming Norwegian industry, aiming to be less dependent on the oil and gas sector, requires a major international airport that connects the entire country to the rest of the world. Many international routes and good accessibility are vital for nationwide competitiveness, and Oslo Airport is the hub of the network of national and international routes. 

Oslo Airport is also a critical part of the infrastructure connecting a vast country. A significant number of people depend on traveling via Oslo to get home to family or maintain business contacts. Having a major hub for air traffic between different parts of the country is therefore important. This could become increasingly challenging if the capacity of the country's main airport is no longer sufficient. 

The consequences of insufficient runway capacity at Norway's main airport could include reduced flight schedules, delays, and congestion. It could also lead to poorer connections between domestic and international traffic. The result might be traffic redirected to networks and hubs in other countries. More complex journeys, with more stops, would lead to longer travel times and higher greenhouse gas emissions. It could also become necessary to divert traffic to other hubs in Scandinavia, an unfavorable situation for passengers, Norwegian aviation, and the environment.

A strong national hub strengthens Norway's competitiveness 
Oslo Airport is the hub that manages national and international network traffic. Nearly 70 percent of passenger traffic and over 40 percent of flight movements in Norway pass through Oslo Airport. The airport also plays a significant role in employment and business development in the region due to the activities occurring there. The capital region is the dominant market for the airport. Oslo and former Akershus account for 70 percent of outgoing flights from Eastern Norway and 85 percent of incoming flights. The majority of incoming business traffic is Oslo-related.

For airlines, splitting main operations across multiple airports is undesirable. It would be costlier and create challenges for transfer passengers. Additionally, it would undermine the development of cohesive route systems for rural Norway.

Traffic soon returning to normal levels 
Since its opening in fall 1998, growth at Oslo Airport has far exceeded expectations. Passenger traffic increased from 14 million in 1999 to 28.5 million in 2019. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, traffic significantly decreased in 2020 but began to recover in 2021. In 2024, traffic remains below pre-pandemic levels, and Avinor estimates that it will return to 2019 levels by 2027. 

However, peak traffic in the mornings and evenings, driven by extensive domestic traffic, along with regulations on nighttime operations, creates capacity challenges for Oslo Airport. Additionally, winter often necessitates runway closures for snow removal. Combined with traffic projections, this suggests that the need for a third runway will likely arise after 2040. Before the COVID-19 crisis, projections from the Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) indicated that a third runway would be necessary by 2030. The introduction of electric aircraft is expected to lead to more flight movements as these planes will accommodate fewer passengers than current aircraft. This factor has not been accounted for in today's projections.  

Before a third runway is potentially built, Oslo Airport will implement all measures to maximize utilization of the existing runways:

Oslo Airport currently has a capacity of 80 flight movements, both departures and arrivals, per hour. By fully utilizing the current two runways and the expanded terminal, capacity can be increased to around 85-90 movements. 

Approximately NOK 1.5-2 billion has been allocated for capacity-enhancing measures between now and 2035 to maximize the use of the current two runways. The goal is to make the facility as efficient as possible, and considerations include: optimizing capacity throughout the day, ensuring quicker removal of aircraft from runways to allow tighter traffic, and increasing terminal capacity.